← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Mon, Apr 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: R Madley
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Middlesbrough win | 42% | 2.30 |
| Sheffield Weds win | 32% | 3.02 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.73 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Sheffield Weds +0.25 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Middlesbrough +0.25 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 60% | 1.60 |
| Under | 40% | 2.42 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 25 | Shots | 17 |
| 11 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 15 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.