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QPR 1–2 Swansea

← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Mon, Apr 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Nield

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Swansea win35%2.79
QPR win35%2.82
Draw30%3.30

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Swansea +051%1.94
QPR +049%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under60%1.61
Over40%2.42

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

29'⚽ (og)Morgan Fox · Swansea
40'🟨Harrison Ashby · QPR
55'⚽Harry Darling · Swansea
72'⚽Karamoko Dembélé · QPR
90'🟨Josh Tymon · Swansea

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
6Shots10
2On target2
5Corners3
19Fouls17
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricQPRSwansea
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.27
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.36
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.610.65
cards avg (last 5)2.201.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMATRADE Loftus Road
coach days
568.00
79.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.18
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.804.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.603.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.231.64
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.03
dominance (last 5)0.540.48
elo1435.441458.54
elo momentum (last 5)18.3348.66
eye test v1-0.06-0.03
eye trend v10.360.39
first sub minute (last 10)55.5064.60
form points (last 5)8.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.201.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.921.14
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.100.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.20
keeper form v10.660.84
league points53.0057.00
league rank14.0011.00
matches since blank3.005.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.2077.00
possession avg (last 5)49.4052.40
rest days3.003.00
scorer concentration0.160.24
season ppg1.231.33
shot diff avg (last 5)1.600.60
shots for avg (last 5)11.6011.80
skill v1-0.200.14
solidity v10.861.03
sot against avg (last 5)3.203.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.003.40
sot for avg (last 3)5.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.404.00
squad age—26.64
state index-0.100.30
sterile dominance v10.010.22
threat rate (last 10)0.220.23
threat rate (last 3)0.290.31
threat rate (last 5)0.240.23
travel km—256.30
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.00
xg against avg (last 5)0.880.84
xg for avg (last 5)1.131.46