← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Mon, Apr 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: E. Bell
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall win | 36% | 2.67 |
| Norwich win | 36% | 2.73 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.42 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall +0 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Norwich +0 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.83 |
| Over | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Mihailo Ivanovic · Millwall |
| 39' | ⚽ | Femi Azeez · Millwall |
| 45' | ⚽ | Shane Duffy · Norwich |
| 61' | 🟨 | Marcelino Núñez · Norwich |
| 69' | ⚽ | Mihailo Ivanovic · Millwall |
| 71' | 🟨 | Luke Cundle · Millwall |
| 79' | 🟨 | Kenny McLean · Norwich |
| 89' | 🟨 | Onel Hernández · Norwich |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 4 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Millwall | Norwich |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | The Den |
| coach days | 141.00 | 20.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.84 | 3.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1472.75 | 1406.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.50 | -16.83 |
| eye test v1 | -0.57 | -0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.56 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.90 | 49.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.63 |
| league points | 60.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.80 | 84.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.00 | 57.80 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 1.23 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.09 | 0.60 |
| solidity v1 | -0.15 | -0.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | — | 27.96 |
| state index | -0.16 | -0.85 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.73 | 1.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.41 | 1.47 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.13 | 1.10 |