← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Mon, Apr 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Busby
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luton win | 37% | 2.63 |
| Bristol City win | 32% | 3.02 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luton +0 | 54% | 1.83 |
| Bristol City +0 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 1.60 |
| Over | 40% | 2.44 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Ross McCrorie · Bristol City |
| 49' | ⚽ | Thelo Aasgaard · Luton |
| 52' | ⚽ | George Tanner · Bristol City |
| 59' | ⚽ | Carlton Morris · Luton |
| 72' | ⚽ | Isaiah Jones · Luton |
| 82' | 🟨 | George Earthy · Bristol City |
| 83' | 🟨 | Jason Knight · Bristol City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Luton | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| venue | Kenilworth Road |
| coach days |
| 110.00 |
| 537.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.87 | 3.39 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1398.64 | 1536.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.32 | 14.02 |
| eye test v1 | -1.15 | -0.31 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.10 | 59.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.77 |
| league points | 43.00 | 67.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.00 | 83.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 55.80 |
| rest days | 3.10 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.56 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.37 | 0.31 |
| solidity v1 | 0.79 | 0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 27.83 | — |
| state index | -0.16 | 0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.71 | 1.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.95 | 1.25 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.91 |