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Leeds 6–0 Stoke

← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Mon, Apr 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Bond

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Leeds win75%1.29
Draw16%6.11
Stoke win9%11.96

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Leeds −1.553%1.86
Stoke −1.547%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over59%1.63
Under41%2.34

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'⚽Joël Piroe · Leeds
8'⚽Joël Piroe · Leeds
17'🟨Ethan Ampadu · Leeds
20'⚽Joël Piroe · Leeds
26'⚽Junior Firpo · Leeds
41'⚽Joël Piroe · Leeds
59'⚽Wilfried Gnonto · Leeds

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

5Half-time score0
18Shots5
11On target1
5Corners1
7Fouls9
1Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLeedsStoke
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.460.38
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.730.70
cards avg (last 5)2.002.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueElland Road
coach days
660.00
110.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.00
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.14
corner diff avg (last 5)2.001.00
corners against avg (last 5)3.003.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.004.20
corners volatility (last 10)1.871.95
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.07
dominance (last 5)0.550.52
elo1643.661438.41
elo momentum (last 5)6.4938.55
eye test v10.59-0.29
eye trend v1-0.000.25
first sub minute (last 10)67.5056.00
form points (last 5)11.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.601.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.850.92
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.500.20
keeper form v10.560.64
league points91.0050.00
league rank1.0017.00
matches since blank7.005.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.2071.20
possession avg (last 5)58.6047.80
rest days2.793.00
scorer concentration0.200.16
season ppg2.121.16
shot diff avg (last 5)2.600.60
shots for avg (last 5)11.8011.60
skill v11.13-0.60
solidity v10.951.02
sot against avg (last 5)3.003.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.303.70
sot for avg (last 3)4.004.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.804.20
squad age26.4428.32
state index0.540.14
sterile dominance v11.05-0.12
threat rate (last 10)0.230.22
threat rate (last 3)0.210.25
threat rate (last 5)0.200.22
travel km—96.50
venue ppg (last 5)2.200.80
xg against avg (last 5)0.960.95
xg for avg (last 5)1.941.21