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Cardiff 1–1 Oxford

← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Mon, Apr 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Hallam

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cardiff win53%1.81
Draw28%3.48
Oxford win18%5.25

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cardiff −0.553%1.81
Oxford −0.547%2.09

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under59%1.64
Over41%2.36

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

40'🟨Przemysław Płacheta · Oxford
51'🟨Michał Helik · Oxford
56'⚽Yousef Salech · Cardiff
59'🟨Alex Matos · Oxford
79'🟨Sivert Mannsverk · Cardiff
79'⚽Cameron Brannagan · Oxford

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
12Shots2
3On target1
4Corners0
14Fouls17
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCardiffOxford
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.31—
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.30—
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.29—
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.15
box share (last 5)0.57—
cards avg (last 5)1.402.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueCardiff City Stadium
coach days
20.00
141.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.040.08
corner diff avg (last 5)0.20-3.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.407.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.604.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.382.00
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.09
dominance (last 5)0.530.42
elo1380.531440.72
elo momentum (last 5)-12.63-10.08
eye test v1-0.51-0.92
eye trend v10.230.48
first sub minute (last 10)51.3056.10
form points (last 5)3.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.600.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.740.57
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.20
keeper form v1—0.66
league points42.0048.00
league rank23.0020.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.001.00
matches since win5.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)69.6063.40
possession avg (last 5)44.4035.20
rest days2.902.79
scorer concentration0.290.15
season ppg0.981.12
shot diff avg (last 5)1.40-4.80
shots for avg (last 5)13.6010.40
skill v1-1.05-1.92
solidity v10.42-0.28
sot against avg (last 5)4.004.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.302.60
sot for avg (last 3)4.003.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.603.20
squad age28.24—
state index-0.77-0.55
sterile dominance v1-0.92-1.57
threat rate (last 10)0.250.23
threat rate (last 3)0.280.28
threat rate (last 5)0.290.28
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.80
xg against avg (last 5)1.081.64
xg for avg (last 5)0.920.81