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Sheffield United 2–0 Cardiff

← EFL Championship 2024-25 Β· Fri, Apr 18, 04:30 PM UTC Β· ref: T. Harrington

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sheffield United win63%1.53
Draw21%4.51
Cardiff win16%6.29

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sheffield United βˆ’151%1.90
Cardiff βˆ’149%2.01

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over55%1.73
Under45%2.20

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

25'🟨William Fish · Cardiff
33'⚽Gustavo Hamer · Sheffield United
69'🟨Hamza Choudhury · Sheffield United
87'⚽Ben Brereton Díaz · Sheffield United

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
15Shots11
5On target3
7Corners1
9Fouls8
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricSheffield UnitedCardiff
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.280.26
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
box share (last 5)0.780.54
cards avg (last 5)1.601.40
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueBramall Lane
coach days504.0017.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.08
corner diff avg (last 5)4.401.00
corners against avg (last 5)3.603.60
corners for avg (last 5)8.004.60
corners volatility (last 10)3.482.17
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.09
dominance (last 5)0.580.56
elo1527.181387.76
elo momentum (last 5)-16.957.92
eye test v10.27-0.45
eye trend v1-0.310.10
first sub minute (last 10)54.2053.00
form points (last 5)6.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.880.67
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.20
keeper form v10.720.68
league points85.0042.00
league rank3.0023.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet4.002.00
matches since win3.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.8069.40
possession avg (last 5)58.0047.00
rest days6.216.10
scorer concentration0.190.29
season ppg2.021.00
shot diff avg (last 5)4.802.60
shots for avg (last 5)14.6013.40
skill v10.48-0.95
solidity v10.780.65
sot against avg (last 5)3.203.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.703.60
sot for avg (last 3)4.003.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.603.80
squad age25.5528.24
state index-0.17-0.41
sterile dominance v10.25-0.73
threat rate (last 10)0.260.25
threat rate (last 3)0.230.30
threat rate (last 5)0.280.28
travel kmβ€”241.40
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.20
xg against avg (last 5)1.010.98
xg for avg (last 5)1.330.90