← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Fri, Apr 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Donohue
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley win | 54% | 57% | 1.79 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.50 | value: +4% |
| Watford win | 19% | 13% | 5.32 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford +0.75 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Burnley +0.75 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 1.64 |
| Over | 41% | 2.37 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Mamadou Doumbia · Watford |
| 43' | ⚽ | Zian Flemming · Burnley |
| 58' | ⚽ | Josh Brownhill · Burnley |
| 59' | 🟨 | Moussa Sissoko · Watford |
| 60' | 🟨 | Moussa Sissoko · Watford |
| 60' | 🟥 | Moussa Sissoko · Watford |
| 61' | 🟨 | Zian Flemming · Burnley |
| 66' | 🟨 | Edo Kayembe · Watford |
| 66' | 🟨 | Josh Cullen · Burnley |
| 69' | 🟨 | Imrân Louza · Watford |
| 69' | 🟨 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 16 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 1 |
| 17 | Fouls | 4 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 2 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| Edo Kayembe · Watford |
| 69' | 🟥 | Edo Kayembe · Watford |
| 84' | 🟨 | Vakoun Issouf Bayo · Watford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ryan Andrews · Watford |
| 90' | 🟨 | James Trafford · Burnley |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jeremy Sarmiento · Burnley |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 413.00 | 291.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.92 | 1.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1574.07 | 1812.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.30 | 19.18 |
| eye test v1 | -0.64 | -0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.70 | 69.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.78 |
| league points | 56.00 | 88.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.40 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 2.10 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.50 | 0.38 |
| solidity v1 | 0.98 | 1.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 25.67 | 25.54 |
| state index | 0.02 | 1.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.94 | 0.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 267.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.91 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.02 | 1.43 |