β EFL Championship 2024-25 Β· Fri, Apr 18, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: B. Toner
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swansea win | 43% | 44% | 2.24 | fair |
| Hull win | 29% | 29% | 3.42 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Swansea β0.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Hull β0.25 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 1.71 |
| Over | 43% | 2.23 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | π¨ | Sean McLoughlin Β· Hull |
| 13' | π¨ | Joe Gelhardt Β· Hull |
| 27' | π¨ | Joe Allen Β· Swansea |
| 51' | β½ (pen) | Ε½an Vipotnik Β· Swansea |
| 72' | π¨ | Jay Fulton Β· Swansea |
| 86' | π¨ | Matt Crooks Β· Hull |
| 90' | π¨ | Matt Crooks Β· Hull |
| 90' | π₯ | Matt Crooks Β· Hull |
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 15 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Swansea | Hull |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| venue | Swansea.com Stadium |
| coach days | 76.00 | 138.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.79 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1597.01 | 1589.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 33.49 | -5.42 |
| eye test v1 | -0.38 | -0.48 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.00 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.77 |
| league points | 54.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 51.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 3.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.03 | -0.10 |
| solidity v1 | 0.50 | 0.96 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.42 | 26.39 |
| state index | 0.53 | -0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.71 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| travel km | β | 335.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.11 | 0.78 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.27 | 0.83 |