← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Fri, Apr 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Kirk
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norwich win | 49% | 61% | 1.95 | value: +18% |
| Draw | 26% | 20% | 3.75 | fair |
| Portsmouth win | 25% | 19% | 4.09 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth −0.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Norwich −0.5 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.89 |
| Under | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Colby Bishop · Portsmouth |
| 21' | ⚽ | Josh Sargent · Norwich |
| 31' | 🟨 | Matt Ritchie · Portsmouth |
| 32' | 🟨 | Isaac Hayden · Portsmouth |
| 39' | ⚽ | Matt Ritchie · Portsmouth |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Colby Bishop · Portsmouth |
| 51' | ⚽ | Colby Bishop · Portsmouth |
| 64' | ⚽ | Jack Stacey · Norwich |
| 71' | ⚽ | Regan Poole · Portsmouth |
| 79' | 🟨 | Borja Sainz · Norwich |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 11 | Shots | 22 |
| 6 | On target | 10 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Norwich | Portsmouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.40 |
| venue | Carrow Road |
| Andre Dozzell · Portsmouth |
| 90' | ⚽ | Emiliano Marcondes · Norwich |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 17.00 | 838.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.13 | 1.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1611.15 | 1572.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.94 | -16.71 |
| eye test v1 | -0.02 | -0.97 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.30 | 58.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.67 |
| league points | 53.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.00 | 66.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.80 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 6.79 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 1.10 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.81 | -1.06 |
| solidity v1 | 0.30 | 0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 25.94 | 27.84 |
| state index | -0.04 | -0.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.87 | 0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.18 |
| travel km | — | 260.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.13 | 1.43 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.87 |