← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Fri, Apr 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Backhouse
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Middlesbrough win | 71% | 70% | 1.34 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 17% | 5.66 | fair |
| Plymouth win | 12% | 13% | 8.64 | value: +15% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Plymouth −1.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Middlesbrough −1.5 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 62% | 1.54 |
| Under | 38% | 2.59 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 22 | Shots | 19 |
| 8 | On target | 5 |
| 12 | Corners | 1 |
| 8 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand