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Coventry 2–0 West Brom

← EFL Championship 2024-25 Β· Fri, Apr 18, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: C. Pawson

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Coventry win46%2.14
West Brom win28%3.48
Draw27%3.60

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Coventry βˆ’0.2553%1.86
West Brom βˆ’0.2547%2.07

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over53%1.81
Under47%2.08

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'⚽Jack Rudoni · Coventry
11'🟨Matt Grimes · Coventry
28'🟨Callum Styles · West Brom
43'🟨Jay Dasilva · Coventry
48'⚽Matt Grimes · Coventry
51'🟨Callum Styles · West Brom
51'πŸŸ₯Callum Styles Β· West Brom
53'🟨Liam Kitching · Coventry

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
10Shots7
4On target0
5Corners5
17Fouls13
3Yellow cards0
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricCoventryWest Brom
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.720.67
cards avg (last 5)1.401.80
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueThe Coventry Building Society Arena
coach days168.0017.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.07
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.800.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.004.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.205.20
corners volatility (last 10)3.553.28
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.13
dominance (last 5)0.590.60
elo1514.601485.97
elo momentum (last 5)2.03-26.25
eye test v10.410.28
eye trend v1-0.120.28
first sub minute (last 10)60.6062.80
form points (last 5)7.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.400.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.060.67
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.500.25
keeper form v1β€”0.74
league points63.0060.00
league rank6.009.00
matches since blank5.002.00
matches since clean sheet1.006.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.6082.60
possession avg (last 5)56.8053.60
rest days3.796.00
scorer concentration0.190.24
season ppg1.501.43
shot diff avg (last 5)4.405.20
shots for avg (last 5)15.2015.20
skill v10.740.50
solidity v10.540.92
sot against avg (last 5)3.404.00
sot for avg (last 10)5.203.80
sot for avg (last 3)5.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.804.60
squad ageβ€”26.46
state index0.21-0.37
sterile dominance v10.360.14
threat rate (last 10)0.260.23
threat rate (last 3)0.260.29
threat rate (last 5)0.270.28
travel kmβ€”32.40
venue ppg (last 5)2.400.60
xg against avg (last 5)1.130.61
xg for avg (last 5)1.631.39