← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Fri, Apr 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: O. Langford
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol City win | 42% | 39% | 2.29 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.30 | fair |
| Sunderland win | 29% | 33% | 3.42 | value: +12% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sunderland −0.25 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Bristol City −0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.67 |
| Over | 42% | 2.31 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟥 | Trai Hume · Sunderland |
| 31' | ⚽ | Eliezer Mayenda · Sunderland |
| 48' | 🟨 | Cameron Pring · Bristol City |
| 55' | ⚽ | Robert Dickie · Bristol City |
| 66' | 🟨 | Anthony Patterson · Sunderland |
| 76' | ⚽ | Ross McCrorie · Bristol City |
| 80' | 🟨 | Leo Fuhr Hjelde · Sunderland |
| 89' | 🟨 | Joseph Anderson · Sunderland |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 27 | Shots | 4 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 5 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bristol City | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.00 |
| venue | Ashton Gate Stadium |
| coach days | 534.00 | 291.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.39 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1666.12 | 1673.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.65 | -13.09 |
| eye test v1 | -0.58 | -0.68 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.90 | 58.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.68 |
| league points | 64.00 | 76.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.52 | 1.81 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.19 | -0.34 |
| solidity v1 | -0.25 | 0.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 26.84 | 24.77 |
| state index | 0.47 | 0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.76 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.71 | 1.42 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.85 |