← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Fri, Apr 18, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: J. Linington
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Derby win | 38% | 2.57 |
| Draw | 33% | 2.96 |
| Luton win | 30% | 3.27 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luton −0.25 | 55% | 1.78 |
| Derby −0.25 | 45% | 2.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 68% | 1.40 |
| Over | 32% | 3.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Millenic Alli · Luton |
| 29' | 🟨 | Sondre Langås · Derby |
| 38' | 🟨 | Carlton Morris · Luton |
| 68' | 🟨 | Millenic Alli · Luton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kayden Jackson · Derby |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Derby | Luton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| venue | Pride Park Stadium |
| 76.00 |
| 107.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 3.30 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1358.29 | 1387.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 36.03 | 8.94 |
| eye test v1 | -1.09 | -0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.45 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.70 | 46.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.73 |
| league points | 43.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 21.00 | 24.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 55.80 | 68.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.00 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 5.90 | 5.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.02 | 0.95 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | -2.26 | -0.96 |
| solidity v1 | 1.21 | 1.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 26.33 | 27.55 |
| state index | -0.13 | -0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.60 | -0.94 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 133.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.82 | 0.65 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.92 | 1.16 |