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QPR 1–1 Bristol City

← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Doughty

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bristol City win41%2.33
QPR win30%3.33
Draw29%3.30

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
QPR +0.2551%1.91
Bristol City +0.2549%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under59%1.65
Over41%2.34

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'🟨Jack Colback · QPR
21'⚽Karamoko Dembélé · QPR
30'⚽George Earthy · Bristol City
47'🟨Ross McCrorie · Bristol City
68'🟨Paul Smyth · QPR

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
13Shots5
4On target1
3Corners6
10Fouls12
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricQPRBristol City
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.41
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.410.47
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.460.39
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.690.63
cards avg (last 5)2.201.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMATRADE Loftus Road
coach days
559.00
528.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.150.13
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.00-1.00
corners against avg (last 5)5.204.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.203.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.833.52
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.08
dominance (last 5)0.440.44
elo1421.641530.21
elo momentum (last 5)1.5515.93
eye test v1-0.22-0.20
eye trend v10.09-0.39
first sub minute (last 10)57.8060.20
form points (last 5)5.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.340.71
h2 goals (last 10)0.701.00
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.30
keeper form v1—0.79
league points49.0063.00
league rank16.005.00
matches since blank1.002.00
matches since clean sheet1.006.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.2081.60
possession avg (last 5)50.0049.60
rest days2.803.80
scorer concentration0.150.21
season ppg1.201.54
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.80-1.80
shots for avg (last 5)9.6011.80
skill v1-0.42-0.12
solidity v10.28-0.19
sot against avg (last 5)4.204.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.905.20
sot for avg (last 3)4.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.404.20
state index-0.320.12
sterile dominance v10.360.30
threat rate (last 10)0.210.25
threat rate (last 3)0.190.16
threat rate (last 5)0.200.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.20
xg against avg (last 5)1.051.62
xg for avg (last 5)0.860.82