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Portsmouth 2–2 Derby

← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Ricardo

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Portsmouth win39%2.48
Draw32%3.00
Derby win28%3.48

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Derby −0.2553%1.84
Portsmouth −0.2547%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under69%1.41
Over31%3.20

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'🟨Jacob Widell Zetterström · Derby
21'🟨Matthew Clarke · Derby
27'🟨Zak Swanson · Portsmouth
33'🟨Isaac Hayden · Portsmouth
34'🟨Nathaniel Mendez-Laing · Derby
57'🟨Ebou Adams · Derby
68'🟨Christian Saydee · Portsmouth
69'🟨Colby Bishop · Portsmouth
70'⚽Jerry Yates · Derby
71'⚽Robert Atkinson · Portsmouth
75'⚽ (og)Robert Atkinson

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
15Shots10
5On target4
6Corners3
13Fouls18
5Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricPortsmouthDerby
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.23
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.420.19
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.29
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.00
box share (last 5)0.590.73
cards avg (last 5)2.802.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueFratton Park
· Derby
80'🟨Robert Atkinson · Portsmouth
90'⚽Robert Atkinson · Portsmouth
coach days832.0070.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.19
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.00-0.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.405.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.404.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.221.64
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.10
dominance (last 5)0.410.54
elo1462.091353.79
elo momentum (last 5)-31.9453.48
eye test v1-1.09-1.28
eye trend v10.010.30
first sub minute (last 10)54.7060.00
form points (last 5)3.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.400.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.741.20
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.20
keeper form v10.710.71
league points45.0042.00
league rank19.0021.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win2.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)69.6058.40
possession avg (last 5)51.8035.20
rest days2.793.80
scorer concentration0.190.18
season ppg1.101.02
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.000.60
shots for avg (last 5)8.808.60
skill v1-0.80-2.26
solidity v10.351.61
sot against avg (last 5)3.602.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.002.00
sot for avg (last 3)2.001.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.202.40
squad age—26.33
state index-0.49-0.05
sterile dominance v10.38-1.51
threat rate (last 10)0.220.22
threat rate (last 3)0.160.27
threat rate (last 5)0.170.25
travel km—237.10
venue ppg (last 5)2.400.80
xg against avg (last 5)1.200.61
xg for avg (last 5)0.780.79