← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Salisbury
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cardiff win | 42% | 2.30 |
| Stoke win | 30% | 3.31 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.50 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stoke −0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Cardiff −0.25 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 1.71 |
| Over | 43% | 2.23 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | 🟨 | Ali Al-Hamadi · Stoke |
| 60' | 🟨 | Ashley Phillips · Stoke |
| 70' | 🟨 | Alex Robertson · Cardiff |
| 72' | 🟨 | Sam Gallagher · Stoke |
| 85' | ⚽ (og) | William Fish · Stoke |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cardiff | Stoke |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | Cardiff City Stadium |
| coach days |
| 11.00 |
| 101.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.11 | 2.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1399.06 | 1413.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.79 | 16.83 |
| eye test v1 | -0.68 | -0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.30 | 57.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.61 |
| league points | 42.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.60 | 70.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.02 | 1.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.15 | -0.63 |
| solidity v1 | 0.35 | 1.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 28.24 | 28.32 |
| state index | -0.37 | -0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.55 | -0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| travel km | — | 182.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.26 | 0.75 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.70 | 1.29 |