← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Fri, Apr 11, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Harrington
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley win | 60% | 70% | 1.58 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 24% | 21% | 4.00 | fair |
| Norwich win | 16% | 8% | 6.83 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Norwich −1 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Burnley −1 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.80 |
| Over | 47% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Hannibal Mejbri · Burnley |
| 24' | ⚽ | Jaidon Anthony · Burnley |
| 35' | 🟨 | Josh Cullen · Burnley |
| 60' | 🟨 | Borja Sainz · Norwich |
| 66' | 🟨 | Anis Ben Slimane · Norwich |
| 68' | 🟨 | Marcus Edwards · Burnley |
| 76' | ⚽ | Jack Stacey · Norwich |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 12 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burnley | Norwich |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| venue | Turf Moor |
| coach days | 284.00 | 10.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 3.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1808.79 | 1614.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.67 | -21.45 |
| eye test v1 | -0.14 | 0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.40 | 52.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.84 | — |
| league points | 85.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 85.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.60 | 61.20 |
| rest days | 3.01 | 3.01 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 2.07 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.57 | 1.06 |
| solidity v1 | 1.58 | 0.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 26.15 | 25.79 |
| state index | 1.14 | -0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.75 | 1.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 269.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.75 | 1.02 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.53 | 1.42 |