← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Wed, Apr 9, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: S. Martin
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Swansea win | 55% | 1.74 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.80 |
| Plymouth win | 19% | 5.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Plymouth −0.75 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Swansea −0.75 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.75 |
| Over | 45% | 2.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Lewis O'Brien · Swansea |
| 21' | 🟨 | Adam Randell · Plymouth |
| 22' | ⚽ | Harry Darling · Swansea |
| 35' | ⚽ | Josh Key · Swansea |
| 72' | 🟨 | Julio Pleguezuelo · Plymouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 6 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 1 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Swansea | Plymouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Swansea.com Stadium |
| coach days |
| 67.00 |
| 98.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.79 | 2.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1423.30 | 1402.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.91 | -5.72 |
| eye test v1 | -0.75 | -1.37 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.90 | 54.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.66 |
| league points | 48.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 24.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 60.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 36.60 |
| rest days | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 0.93 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 7.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.36 | -2.06 |
| solidity v1 | 0.68 | -0.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 27.13 | — |
| state index | -0.21 | -0.59 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.56 | -1.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.11 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.06 | 1.58 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.88 | 0.76 |