← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Tue, Apr 8, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Kitchen
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds win | 54% | 1.79 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.01 |
| Middlesbrough win | 22% | 4.38 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough +0.75 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Leeds +0.75 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 1.69 |
| Under | 43% | 2.27 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Daniel James · Leeds |
| 74' | 🟨 | Aidan Morris · Middlesbrough |
| 75' | 🟨 | Sam Byram · Leeds |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 5 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Middlesbrough | Leeds |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.79 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | Riverside Stadium |
| coach days | 920.00 | 647.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.10 | 2.15 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1479.53 | 1625.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.41 | -22.67 |
| eye test v1 | -0.70 | 0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.32 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.20 | 67.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.61 |
| league points | 60.00 | 82.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.40 | 61.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.31 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 2.05 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.35 | 0.79 |
| solidity v1 | 0.45 | 0.83 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 28.62 | 26.90 |
| state index | 0.31 | 0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.58 | 0.95 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| travel km | — | 91.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.28 | 0.91 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.02 | 1.58 |