← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Tue, Apr 8, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: D. Whitestone
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stoke win | 38% | 2.56 |
| Luton win | 32% | 3.07 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.20 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luton −0.25 | 55% | 1.76 |
| Stoke −0.25 | 45% | 2.17 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 1.59 |
| Over | 40% | 2.45 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | Mark McGuinness · Luton |
| 42' | 🟨 | Carlton Morris · Luton |
| 47' | 🟨 | Junior Tchamadeu · Stoke |
| 50' | 🟨 | Jun-Ho Bae · Stoke |
| 74' | ⚽ | Lewis Baker · Stoke |
| 90' | ⚽ | Millenic Alli · Luton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 15 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stoke | Luton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | bet365 Stadium |
| 97.00 |
| 97.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.31 | 3.24 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1415.97 | 1397.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.99 | 25.19 |
| eye test v1 | -0.22 | -0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.00 | 52.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.70 |
| league points | 43.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 23.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.00 | 67.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.60 | 36.80 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.30 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 0.97 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.30 | -1.46 |
| solidity v1 | 1.12 | 0.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 28.32 | 27.41 |
| state index | -0.06 | -0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.15 | -1.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 170.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.74 | 1.20 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.64 | 1.06 |