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Oxford 1–0 Sheffield United

← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Linington

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sheffield United win54%1.76
Draw26%3.64
Oxford win19%5.14

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Oxford +0.7551%1.92
Sheffield United +0.7549%2.01

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under57%1.71
Over43%2.22

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

38'⚽Siriki Dembélé · Oxford
52'🟨Hidde ter Avest · Oxford
60'🟨Anel Ahmedhodžić · Sheffield United
74'🟨Przemysław Płacheta · Oxford
90'🟨Gustavo Hamer · Sheffield United
90'🟨Jack Robinson · Sheffield United

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
9Shots15
3On target4
2Corners10
6Fouls8
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricOxfordSheffield United
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.250.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.05
box share (last 5)0.610.56
cards avg (last 5)1.801.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueThe Kassam Stadium
coach days
125.00
491.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.170.14
corner diff avg (last 5)-4.800.60
corners against avg (last 5)8.604.40
corners for avg (last 5)3.805.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.492.94
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.04
dominance (last 5)0.320.45
elo1442.651565.46
elo momentum (last 5)-18.2334.16
eye test v1-0.850.02
eye trend v10.680.34
first sub minute (last 10)60.1054.60
form points (last 5)4.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.401.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.600.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.670.84
h2 goals (last 10)0.501.00
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.30
keeper form v10.690.76
league points42.0085.00
league rank18.001.00
matches since blank5.0010.00
matches since clean sheet1.001.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)66.6077.20
possession avg (last 5)36.2045.40
rest days6.967.75
scorer concentration0.150.19
season ppg1.082.18
shot diff avg (last 5)-9.00-3.00
shots for avg (last 5)8.4011.40
skill v1-1.69-0.26
solidity v1-0.670.40
sot against avg (last 5)4.404.60
sot for avg (last 10)2.104.30
sot for avg (last 3)3.005.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.004.40
squad age—25.70
state index-0.540.76
sterile dominance v1-1.02-0.37
threat rate (last 10)0.210.25
threat rate (last 3)0.270.30
threat rate (last 5)0.230.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.403.00
xg against avg (last 5)1.901.12
xg for avg (last 5)0.781.32