← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Toner
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall win | 41% | 2.34 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.02 |
| Portsmouth win | 27% | 3.63 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth −0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Millwall −0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 65% | 1.48 |
| Over | 35% | 2.77 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟨 | Terry Devlin · Portsmouth |
| 57' | ⚽ | Mihailo Ivanovic · Millwall |
| 59' | 🟨 | Colby Bishop · Portsmouth |
| 67' | 🟨 | Matt Ritchie · Portsmouth |
| 80' | ⚽ | Andre Dozzell · Portsmouth |
| 87' | ⚽ | Mihailo Ivanovic · Millwall |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marlon Pack · Portsmouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 6 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 11 | Corners | 4 |
| 20 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Millwall | Portsmouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.79 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | The Den |
| coach days |
| 125.00 |
| 825.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.76 | 2.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1460.34 | 1478.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.76 | -15.01 |
| eye test v1 | -1.22 | -1.13 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.39 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.70 | 56.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.75 |
| league points | 51.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 72.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 54.40 |
| rest days | 6.96 | 6.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.31 | 1.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.66 | -0.59 |
| solidity v1 | 0.13 | 0.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| state index | -0.30 | -0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.32 | 0.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.42 | 1.26 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.68 |