← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 5, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: T. Bramall
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds win | 59% | 1.64 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.14 |
| Luton win | 18% | 5.41 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luton +1 | 55% | 1.78 |
| Leeds +1 | 45% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.88 |
| Over | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Isaiah Jones · Luton |
| 22' | 🟨 | Isaiah Jones · Luton |
| 28' | ⚽ | Daniel James · Leeds |
| 40' | 🟨 | Jayden Bogle · Leeds |
| 59' | 🟨 | Manor Solomon · Leeds |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 0 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Luton | Leeds |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.81 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| venue | Kenilworth Road |
| 94.00 |
| 644.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.85 | 3.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1392.41 | 1630.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 32.55 | -23.52 |
| eye test v1 | -0.74 | -0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.47 | -0.56 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.30 | 68.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.90 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.72 |
| league points | 38.00 | 81.00 |
| league rank | 23.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.40 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.80 | 58.40 |
| rest days | 6.96 | 6.85 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 2.08 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.37 | 0.69 |
| solidity v1 | 1.10 | 0.86 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 28.36 | 26.42 |
| state index | -0.16 | 0.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.92 | 0.59 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 224.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.98 | 0.88 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.02 | 1.53 |