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Leeds 2–2 Swansea

← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Toner

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Leeds win76%1.29
Draw17%5.75
Swansea win7%13.37

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Swansea −1.550%1.95
Leeds −1.550%1.97

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under51%1.92
Over49%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

-5'🟨Liam Cullen · Swansea
1'⚽Brenden Aaronson · Leeds
34'🟨Ethan Ampadu · Leeds
39'🟨Hannes Delcroix · Swansea
64'⚽Harry Darling · Swansea
70'🟨Gonçalo Franco · Swansea
83'🟨Lewis O'Brien · Swansea
86'⚽Wilfried Gnonto · Leeds
87'🟨Wilfried Gnonto · Leeds
90'🟨Ao Tanaka · Leeds
90'⚽Žan Vipotnik · Swansea

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
15Shots9
7On target6
5Corners4
13Fouls16
3Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLeedsSwansea
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.240.25
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.260.25
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
box share (last 5)0.810.69
cards avg (last 5)0.600.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueElland Road
coach days637.0056.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.06
corner diff avg (last 5)3.20-0.60
corners against avg (last 5)3.404.80
corners for avg (last 5)6.604.20
corners volatility (last 10)3.022.50
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.06
dominance (last 5)0.640.49
elo1637.171409.88
elo momentum (last 5)-3.2713.72
eye test v1-0.04-0.85
eye trend v1-0.560.11
first sub minute (last 10)69.3064.20
form points (last 5)8.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.600.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.600.80
goals volatility (last 10)2.060.95
h2 goals (last 10)1.300.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.500.30
keeper form v10.720.59
league points80.0044.00
league rank3.0016.00
matches since blank2.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.6074.20
possession avg (last 5)59.0049.20
rest days14.1014.00
scorer concentration0.220.29
season ppg2.111.16
shot diff avg (last 5)6.40-0.80
shots for avg (last 5)14.8010.40
skill v10.70-0.52
solidity v11.201.05
sot against avg (last 5)2.803.00
sot for avg (last 10)5.103.00
sot for avg (last 3)3.002.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.802.80
squad age26.2827.69
state index0.63-0.27
sterile dominance v10.600.05
threat rate (last 10)0.310.19
threat rate (last 3)0.220.21
threat rate (last 5)0.250.22
travel km—285.80
venue ppg (last 5)2.600.80
xg against avg (last 5)0.730.93
xg for avg (last 5)1.430.95