← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 29, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Ricardo
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford win | 57% | 1.68 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.84 |
| Plymouth win | 18% | 5.38 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford −0.75 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Plymouth −0.75 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.83 |
| Over | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Darko Gyabi · Plymouth |
| 64' | 🟨 | Julio Pleguezuelo · Plymouth |
| 82' | 🟨 | Conor Hazard · Plymouth |
| 90' | 🟨 | Yasser Larouci · Watford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 7 |
| 1 | On target | 1 |
| 14 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Plymouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days | 393.00 | 87.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.70 | 2.01 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.22 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1418.04 | 1390.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.42 | -33.62 |
| eye test v1 | -0.36 | -1.73 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.00 | 52.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.66 |
| league points | 52.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 24.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 61.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.20 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 13.90 | 13.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.37 | 0.87 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 7.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.52 | -1.75 |
| solidity v1 | 1.41 | -0.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.60 |
| squad age | 27.74 | — |
| state index | -0.20 | -0.99 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.93 | -0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.63 | 1.60 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.27 | 0.54 |