← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Fri, Mar 28, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: O. Langford
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sheffield United win | 45% | 56% | 2.13 | value: +20% |
| Coventry win | 28% | 19% | 3.45 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.64 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sheffield United −0.25 | 52% | 1.86 |
| Coventry −0.25 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.89 |
| Over | 48% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Bobby Thomas · Coventry |
| 19' | ⚽ | Gustavo Hamer · Sheffield United |
| 30' | ⚽ | Tyrese Campbell · Sheffield United |
| 62' | ⚽ | Rhian Brewster · Sheffield United |
| 65' | 🟨 | Ben Brereton Díaz · Sheffield United |
| 65' | 🟨 | Jamie Allen · Coventry |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jack Rudoni · Coventry |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sheffield United | Coventry |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | Bramall Lane |
| coach days | 483.00 | 147.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 5.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.41 | 3.53 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.67 |
| elo | 1737.11 | 1670.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.87 | 17.23 |
| eye test v1 | -0.12 | 0.72 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | -0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.30 | 64.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.78 |
| league points | 82.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 57.00 |
| rest days | 12.31 | 13.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 2.16 | 1.55 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | 8.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 16.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.15 | 0.86 |
| solidity v1 | 0.11 | 0.67 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 25.79 | 26.43 |
| state index | 0.57 | 0.86 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.04 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| travel km | — | 102.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.21 | 1.09 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.42 | 1.79 |