← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 15, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Simpson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Brom win | 51% | 54% | 1.90 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.50 | fair |
| Hull win | 22% | 20% | 4.47 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| West Brom −0.5 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Hull −0.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.74 |
| Over | 45% | 2.19 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | 🟨 | Charlie Hughes · Hull |
| 36' | 🟨 | Regan Slater · Hull |
| 67' | ⚽ | Isaac Price · West Brom |
| 73' | 🟨 | Kasey Palmer · Hull |
| 74' | 🟨 | Joe Gelhardt · Hull |
| 79' | ⚽ | Abu Kamara · Hull |
| 81' | 🟨 | Kyle Bartley · West Brom |
| 89' | 🟨 | Alfie Jones · Hull |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 6 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Brom | Hull |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | The Hawthorns |
| coach days | 73.00 | 104.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.24 | 2.28 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1683.57 | 1594.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.12 | 24.70 |
| eye test v1 | -0.67 | -0.75 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.40 | 56.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| league points | 56.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.51 | 1.08 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.22 | -0.40 |
| solidity v1 | 1.24 | 0.85 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 26.85 | 25.23 |
| state index | 0.65 | 0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.44 | 0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.13 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 173.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.96 | 0.95 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.08 | 1.26 |