← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 15, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: O. Langford
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burnley win | 47% | 2.06 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.30 |
| Swansea win | 24% | 4.20 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Swansea +0.5 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Burnley +0.5 | 48% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 63% | 1.53 |
| Over | 37% | 2.68 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Josh Brownhill · Burnley |
| 22' | ⚽ | Jaidon Anthony · Burnley |
| 74' | 🟨 | Jay Fulton · Swansea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 5 | Shots | 12 |
| 1 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Swansea | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | Swansea.com Stadium |
| coach days |
| 42.00 |
| 257.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.76 | 3.05 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1419.21 | 1617.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.13 | 14.71 |
| eye test v1 | -0.68 | -0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.00 | 68.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.91 |
| league points | 44.00 | 75.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 86.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 60.80 |
| rest days | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 2.03 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.30 | 1.19 |
| solidity v1 | 1.20 | 1.75 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.78 | 25.47 |
| state index | -0.21 | 0.84 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.18 | 1.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| travel km | — | 264.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.53 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.03 | 1.61 |