← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 15, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Busby
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Derby win | 38% | 2.52 |
| Draw | 33% | 3.00 |
| Plymouth win | 29% | 3.36 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Plymouth +0.25 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Derby +0.25 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 68% | 1.42 |
| Over | 32% | 3.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Marcus Harness · Derby |
| 26' | ⚽ | Harrison Armstrong · Derby |
| 38' | ⚽ | Mustapha Bundu · Plymouth |
| 45' | 🟨 | Nathaniel Phillips · Derby |
| 46' | ⚽ (og) | Nathaniel Phillips · Plymouth |
| 58' | 🟨 | Liam Thompson · Derby |
| 80' | 🟨 | Ebou Adams · Derby |
| 88' | ⚽ | Marcus Harness · Derby |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 11 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 4 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Plymouth | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.18 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Home Park |
| coach days |
| 73.00 |
| 42.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 2.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1404.17 | 1322.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.55 | 14.16 |
| eye test v1 | -1.69 | -1.74 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.70 | 60.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.71 |
| league points | 33.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 24.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 62.60 | 66.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.40 | 39.60 |
| rest days | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 0.89 | 0.95 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.40 | -6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.98 | -1.54 |
| solidity v1 | -0.51 | -0.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.30 | 2.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| squad age | — | 26.33 |
| state index | -0.78 | -0.81 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.67 | -0.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.86 | 1.33 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.84 |