← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 15, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Madley
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford win | 37% | 2.63 |
| Oxford win | 32% | 3.03 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.11 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford +0 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Oxford +0 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 1.61 |
| Over | 40% | 2.42 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 51' | 🟨 | Francisco Sierralta · Watford |
| 67' | 🟨 | Przemysław Płacheta · Oxford |
| 67' | 🟨 | James Abankwah · Watford |
| 79' | 🟨 | James Abankwah · Watford |
| 79' | 🟥 | James Abankwah · Watford |
| 82' | ⚽ | Siriki Dembélé · Oxford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Oxford | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | The Kassam Stadium |
| coach days |
| 104.00 |
| 379.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.66 | 2.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1442.99 | 1425.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -48.43 | 22.39 |
| eye test v1 | -1.31 | -0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.65 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.60 | 53.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.73 |
| league points | 39.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.80 | 83.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.60 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.05 | 1.41 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.40 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.00 | 0.50 |
| solidity v1 | -1.05 | 1.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.80 |
| squad age | — | 28.16 |
| state index | -1.26 | 0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.03 | 0.69 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.10 | 0.72 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.73 | 1.32 |