← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 15, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Hallam
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough win | 36% | 2.65 |
| Luton win | 35% | 2.70 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.54 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough +0 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Luton +0 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.90 |
| Over | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | 🟨 | Samuel Iling Junior · Middlesbrough |
| 64' | 🟨 | Jacob Brown · Luton |
| 67' | 🟨 | Liam Walsh · Luton |
| 75' | 🟨 | Anfernee Dijksteel · Middlesbrough |
| 89' | 🟨 | Hayden Hackney · Middlesbrough |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 0 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 18 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Luton | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| venue | Kenilworth Road |
| coach days | 73.00 | 896.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.57 | 2.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1378.82 | 1456.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.21 | 12.39 |
| eye test v1 | -1.00 | 0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.32 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.60 | 57.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.75 |
| league points | 34.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 23.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.80 | 84.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.92 | 1.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.08 | 0.44 |
| solidity v1 | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 26.99 | 28.62 |
| state index | -0.55 | -0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.31 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 304.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.33 | 1.17 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.88 | 1.22 |