← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 15, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: T. Robinson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds win | 66% | 62% | 1.44 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 23% | 4.60 | value: +6% |
| QPR win | 13% | 15% | 7.88 | value: +21% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| QPR +1.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Leeds +1.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 50% | 1.93 |
| Over | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Koki Saito · QPR |
| 21' | 🟨 | Jimmy Dunne · QPR |
| 30' | ⚽ | Steve Cook · QPR |
| 40' | ⚽ (og) | Morgan Fox · Leeds |
| 51' | ⚽ | Jayden Bogle · Leeds |
| 60' | 🟨 | Kenneth Paal · QPR |
| 72' | 🟨 | Pascal Struijk · Leeds |
| 82' | 🟨 | Michael Frey · QPR |
| 90' | 🟥 | Koki Saito · QPR |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jayden Bogle · Leeds |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 1 | Corners | 8 |
| 17 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | QPR | Leeds |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.18 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| venue | MATRADE Loftus Road |
| coach days | 531.00 | 623.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.11 | 3.05 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.68 |
| elo | 1573.84 | 1831.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.64 | 1.80 |
| eye test v1 | -0.32 | 0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.32 | -0.75 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.50 | 70.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 2.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.76 |
| league points | 44.00 | 79.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 83.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 59.00 |
| rest days | 3.70 | 2.70 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 2.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 9.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 17.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.06 | 0.92 |
| solidity v1 | 0.83 | 1.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 27.09 | 26.45 |
| state index | -0.10 | 1.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.62 | 0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 268.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.04 | 0.67 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.02 | 1.54 |