← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 15, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Davies
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall win | 39% | 2.52 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.00 |
| Stoke win | 29% | 3.37 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stoke −0.25 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Millwall −0.25 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 66% | 1.44 |
| Over | 34% | 2.88 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | 🟨 | Aidomo Emakhu · Millwall |
| 63' | 🟨 | Lewis Koumas · Stoke |
| 76' | 🟨 | Aaron Connolly · Millwall |
| 76' | 🟨 | Junior Tchamadeu · Stoke |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jordan Thompson · Stoke |
| 90' | 🟨 | Wouter Burger · Stoke |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ben Wilmot · Stoke |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Mihailo Ivanovic · Millwall |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 5 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 8 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Millwall | Stoke |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | The Den |
| coach days | 104.00 | 73.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 1.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1460.40 | 1406.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.36 | -25.86 |
| eye test v1 | -1.14 | -0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.44 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.10 | 53.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.69 |
| league points | 48.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.40 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.80 | 41.80 |
| rest days | 2.70 | 2.69 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 1.05 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.09 | -0.22 |
| solidity v1 | 0.52 | -0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.20 |
| squad age | — | 28.32 |
| state index | -0.42 | -0.85 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.45 | -0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.89 | 1.41 |