← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Fri, Mar 14, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Allison
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol City win | 45% | 40% | 2.13 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.42 | fair |
| Norwich win | 26% | 35% | 3.70 | value: +28% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bristol City −0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Norwich −0.25 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.83 |
| Over | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Mark Sykes · Bristol City |
| 23' | ⚽ | Nahki Wells · Bristol City |
| 34' | 🟨 | Jason Knight · Bristol City |
| 36' | 🟨 | Joe Williams · Bristol City |
| 44' | 🟨 | Kellen Fisher · Norwich |
| 82' | ⚽ | Borja Sainz · Norwich |
| 90' | 🟨 | Robert Dickie · Bristol City |
| 90' | 🟨 | Max O'Leary · Bristol City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 20 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bristol City | Norwich |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| venue | Ashton Gate Stadium |
| coach days | 499.00 | 256.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.06 | 3.30 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1649.47 | 1624.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.16 | -6.58 |
| eye test v1 | 0.87 | 0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | 0.60 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.70 | 56.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.65 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.63 |
| league points | 54.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 86.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.60 | 63.20 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.01 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.46 | 1.32 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.40 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.93 | 1.21 |
| solidity v1 | 0.52 | 0.87 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.03 | 23.84 |
| state index | 0.70 | 0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.17 | 1.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.25 | 0.95 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.82 | 1.42 |