← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Wed, Mar 12, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: M. Donohue
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth win | 60% | 1.60 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.00 |
| Plymouth win | 16% | 6.26 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Plymouth −1 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Portsmouth −1 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.81 |
| Over | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 44' | ⚽ | Mustapha Bundu · Plymouth |
| 49' | ⚽ | Ryan Hardie · Plymouth |
| 67' | 🟨 | Matthew Sorinola · Plymouth |
| 86' | 🟨 | Matthew Sorinola · Plymouth |
| 86' | 🟥 | Matthew Sorinola · Plymouth |
| 89' | ⚽ | Adil Aouchiche · Portsmouth |
| 90' | 🟨 | Adil Aouchiche · Portsmouth |
| 90' | 🟨 | Cohen Bramall · Portsmouth |
| 90' | 🟨 | Darko Gyabi · Plymouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 6 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 0 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Portsmouth | Plymouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.13 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.80 |
| venue | Fratton Park |
| coach days | 801.00 | 70.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 2.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.91 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.32 |
| elo | 1494.04 | 1389.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 33.16 | -44.81 |
| eye test v1 | -0.41 | -1.17 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.60 | -0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.60 | 53.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.60 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.68 |
| league points | 42.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 24.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.80 | 66.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 42.40 |
| rest days | 3.32 | 4.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.13 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 0.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 6.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.09 | -1.32 |
| solidity v1 | 0.61 | -0.62 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 0.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.40 |
| state index | 0.41 | -1.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.96 | -0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.12 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.23 | 1.75 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.27 | 0.99 |