← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Tue, Mar 11, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: A. Davies
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cardiff win | 41% | 2.42 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.25 |
| Luton win | 30% | 3.21 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luton −0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Cardiff −0.25 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 1.68 |
| Over | 43% | 2.28 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 50' | ⚽ | Calum Chambers · Cardiff |
| 57' | ⚽ | Jordan Clark · Luton |
| 67' | 🟨 | Callum O'Dowda · Cardiff |
| 78' | 🟨 | Isaiah Jones · Luton |
| 80' | ⚽ | Thelo Aasgaard · Luton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cardiff | Luton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Cardiff City Stadium |
| coach days | 191.00 | 69.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 2.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1392.26 | 1366.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.68 | -11.41 |
| eye test v1 | -0.58 | -0.83 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.45 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.70 | 58.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.67 |
| league points | 36.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 23.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 71.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.00 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.64 | -0.83 |
| solidity v1 | 0.54 | 0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 28.24 | 25.98 |
| state index | -0.38 | -0.90 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.10 | -0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 196.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.24 | 1.60 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.07 | 1.01 |