← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Tue, Mar 11, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: G. Ward
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burnley win | 54% | 1.80 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.50 |
| West Brom win | 18% | 5.83 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| West Brom −0.75 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Burnley −0.75 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.66 |
| Over | 42% | 2.32 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | John Swift · West Brom |
| 23' | ⚽ | Zian Flemming · Burnley |
| 38' | 🟨 | Isaac Price · West Brom |
| 90' | 🟥 | CJ Egan-Riley · Burnley |
| 90' | 🟨 | Will Lankshear · West Brom |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 7 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 17 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burnley | West Brom |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Turf Moor |
| coach days | 253.00 | 69.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.06 | 4.30 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1622.04 | 1507.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.88 | 5.50 |
| eye test v1 | 0.29 | -0.60 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 69.70 | 57.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.93 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.95 | 0.69 |
| league points | 74.00 | 55.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.40 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.00 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 2.06 | 1.53 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.24 | 0.06 |
| solidity v1 | 2.04 | 1.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 25.98 | 27.00 |
| state index | 1.12 | -0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.08 | 0.71 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| travel km | — | 143.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.80 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.65 | 1.07 |