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Swansea 1–0 Middlesbrough

← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 8, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Ricardo

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Middlesbrough win36%2.70
Swansea win35%2.74
Draw29%3.35

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Middlesbrough +051%1.93
Swansea +049%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under52%1.85
Over48%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

26'⚽Ji-sung Eom · Swansea
28'🟨Anfernee Dijksteel · Middlesbrough
43'🟨Gonçalo Franco · Swansea

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
13Shots9
4On target1
5Corners6
16Fouls12
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSwanseaMiddlesbrough
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.260.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.15
box share (last 5)0.800.62
cards avg (last 5)0.202.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueSwansea.com Stadium
coach days35.00889.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.09
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.20-1.60
corners against avg (last 5)6.405.40
corners for avg (last 5)3.203.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.762.25
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.08
dominance (last 5)0.410.51
elo1418.381458.12
elo momentum (last 5)14.45-8.84
eye test v1-0.820.32
eye trend v10.140.16
first sub minute (last 10)62.5058.50
form points (last 5)7.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.920.82
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.35
keeper form v10.570.75
league points41.0050.00
league rank16.009.00
matches since blank0.003.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.2082.80
possession avg (last 5)53.0052.40
rest days3.807.00
scorer concentration0.290.20
season ppg1.171.43
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.20-0.40
shots for avg (last 5)8.4013.60
skill v1-0.260.43
solidity v10.40-0.47
sot against avg (last 5)4.005.20
sot for avg (last 10)2.904.70
sot for avg (last 3)2.675.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.805.00
squad age26.7828.62
state index-0.33-0.36
sterile dominance v10.610.25
threat rate (last 10)0.170.25
threat rate (last 3)0.190.29
threat rate (last 5)0.170.26
travel km—373.30
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.60
xg against avg (last 5)1.221.55
xg for avg (last 5)1.091.34