← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 8, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Kitchen
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Blackburn win | 34% | 2.80 |
| Derby win | 34% | 2.85 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.09 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Blackburn +0 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Derby +0 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 64% | 1.52 |
| Over | 36% | 2.64 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Craig Forsyth · Derby |
| 7' | ⚽ | Ebou Adams · Derby |
| 40' | ⚽ | Makhtar Gueye · Blackburn |
| 42' | 🟨 | Callum Brittain · Blackburn |
| 70' | 🟨 | Harrison Armstrong · Derby |
| 74' | 🟨 | Jerry Yates · Derby |
| 81' | 🟨 | Sondre Tronstad · Blackburn |
| 84' | 🟨 | Hayden Carter · Blackburn |
| 86' | 🟨 | Matthew Clarke · Derby |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Derby | Blackburn |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.11 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| venue | Pride Park Stadium |
| coach days | 35.00 | 35.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.62 | 2.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1287.10 | 1462.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.17 | -0.16 |
| eye test v1 | -1.57 | -0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.32 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.70 | 56.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.42 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | — |
| league points | 29.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 24.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 1.49 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.89 | -0.06 |
| solidity v1 | 0.46 | 0.42 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 0.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 26.33 | — |
| state index | -1.49 | -0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.24 | 0.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 113.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.04 | 1.08 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.62 | 1.15 |