← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 8, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Martin
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burnley win | 59% | 1.65 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.80 |
| Luton win | 15% | 6.50 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luton −1 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Burnley −1 | 46% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 1.71 |
| Over | 43% | 2.22 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Kal Naismith · Luton |
| 16' | 🟨 | Josh Cullen · Burnley |
| 19' | 🟨 | Kal Naismith · Luton |
| 19' | 🟥 | Kal Naismith · Luton |
| 30' | ⚽ (og) | Mark McGuinness · Burnley |
| 39' | ⚽ | Lyle Foster · Burnley |
| 41' | 🟨 | Lucas Pires · Burnley |
| 53' | 🟨 | Jordan Clark · Luton |
| 53' | ⚽ | Josh Brownhill · Burnley |
| 80' | 🟨 | Zack Nelson · Luton |
| 89' | 🟨 | Maxime Estève · Burnley |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ashley Barnes · Burnley |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 3 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 5 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burnley | Luton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.17 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Turf Moor |
| coach days | 250.00 | 66.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.54 | 2.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1616.50 | 1371.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.27 | -12.70 |
| eye test v1 | 0.27 | -1.03 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 69.70 | 56.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.96 | — |
| league points | 71.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 69.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.40 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 2.03 | 0.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.73 | -0.88 |
| solidity v1 | 1.78 | 0.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 25.45 | 27.06 |
| state index | 0.97 | -0.76 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.83 | -0.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 243.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.67 | 1.30 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.25 | 1.02 |