← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 8, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: G. Ward
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford win | 43% | 2.26 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.10 |
| Millwall win | 26% | 3.76 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford −0.25 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Millwall −0.25 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 65% | 1.49 |
| Over | 35% | 2.76 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | ⚽ | Matthew Pollock · Watford |
| 50' | 🟨 | Luke Cundle · Millwall |
| 59' | ⚽ | Casper De Norre · Millwall |
| 81' | ⚽ | Josh Coburn · Millwall |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 11 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 7 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days | 372.00 | 97.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.71 | 1.48 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1428.20 | 1455.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.59 | -27.30 |
| eye test v1 | -0.12 | -0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.30 | 56.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.63 |
| league points | 49.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.20 | 72.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.00 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 3.70 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.64 | -0.52 |
| solidity v1 | -0.15 | 0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.89 | — |
| state index | -0.31 | -0.50 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.96 | 0.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.47 | 1.33 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.33 | 1.02 |