← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Fri, Mar 7, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Bell
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Norwich win | 60% | 1.63 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.05 |
| Oxford win | 17% | 5.80 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Oxford −1 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Norwich −1 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.93 |
| Under | 49% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Josh Sargent · Norwich |
| 18' | ⚽ | Mark Harris · Oxford |
| 69' | 🟨 | Elliott Moore · Oxford |
| 72' | 🟨 | Ciaron Brown · Oxford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 3 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 12 | Corners | 1 |
| 7 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Norwich | Oxford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.17 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.13 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | Carrow Road |
| coach days | 249.00 | 96.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -5.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 8.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.47 | 1.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.32 |
| elo | 1441.35 | 1450.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.00 | -50.09 |
| eye test v1 | -0.26 | -1.74 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.32 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.40 | 60.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.72 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.71 |
| league points | 48.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.20 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.80 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 6.31 | 6.31 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 1.37 | 1.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -8.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 7.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.96 | -0.67 |
| solidity v1 | 0.87 | -0.95 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.20 |
| squad age | 26.47 | — |
| state index | -0.06 | -1.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.28 | 0.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.09 | 1.96 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.25 | 0.66 |