← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Tue, Mar 4, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: M. Donohue
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall win | 35% | 2.78 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.00 |
| Bristol City win | 32% | 3.04 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall +0 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Bristol City +0 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 68% | 1.41 |
| Over | 32% | 3.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 53' | ⚽ | Zak Vyner · Bristol City |
| 83' | ⚽ | Harry Cornick · Bristol City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 11 |
| 1 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 5 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Millwall | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | The Den |
| coach days | 93.00 | 489.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 2.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1472.09 | 1502.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.77 | 3.32 |
| eye test v1 | -0.17 | -0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.90 | 56.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.80 |
| league points | 45.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.60 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 10.30 | 11.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 1.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.67 | -0.45 |
| solidity v1 | 0.32 | 0.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| state index | -0.34 | 0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.03 | -0.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.12 | 1.23 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.98 | 1.30 |