← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Nield
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stoke win | 36% | 2.70 |
| Watford win | 35% | 2.81 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.31 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stoke +0 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Watford +0 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.79 |
| Over | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | 🟨 | Ben Pearson · Stoke |
| 33' | 🟨 | Imrân Louza · Watford |
| 69' | 🟨 | Giorgi Chakvetadze · Watford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 8 |
| 2 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stoke | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | bet365 Stadium |
| coach days | 59.00 | 365.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.13 | 1.72 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1403.01 | 1427.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.36 | 6.10 |
| eye test v1 | -0.49 | -0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.45 | 0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.80 | 51.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.71 |
| league points | 35.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 84.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 6.13 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.03 | 1.41 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.30 | 0.41 |
| solidity v1 | -1.16 | -0.79 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 28.32 | 26.97 |
| state index | -0.74 | -0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.16 | 0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| travel km | — | 191.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.82 | 1.86 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.06 | 1.37 |