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QPR 1–2 Sheffield United

← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Kirk

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sheffield United win42%2.30
Draw30%3.20
QPR win28%3.56

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sheffield United +0.2550%1.95
QPR +0.2550%1.96

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under57%1.69
Over43%2.26

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

10'⚽Ben Brereton Díaz · Sheffield United
14'🟨Hamza Choudhury · Sheffield United
49'🟨Jimmy Dunne · QPR
54'⚽Tyrese Campbell · Sheffield United
62'🟨Anel Ahmedhodžić · Sheffield United
72'⚽ (pen)Michael Frey · QPR
75'🟨Ben Brereton Díaz · Sheffield United
78'🟨Jack Colback · QPR
86'🟨Alfie Lloyd · QPR

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
16Shots8
4On target2
6Corners2
15Fouls14
3Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricQPRSheffield United
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.40
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.15
box share (last 5)0.600.62
cards avg (last 5)1.202.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMATRADE Loftus Road
coach days517.00456.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.14
corner diff avg (last 5)2.400.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.404.20
corners for avg (last 5)6.804.60
corners volatility (last 10)4.353.95
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.07
dominance (last 5)0.600.45
elo1435.361531.31
elo momentum (last 5)-2.3516.53
eye test v1-0.110.12
eye trend v1-0.060.22
first sub minute (last 10)61.7054.90
form points (last 5)6.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.260.85
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.35
keeper form v1—0.75
league points44.0072.00
league rank14.002.00
matches since blank2.005.00
matches since clean sheet1.001.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.6075.60
possession avg (last 5)50.6051.20
rest days7.004.79
scorer concentration0.170.17
season ppg1.292.12
shot diff avg (last 5)4.40-2.20
shots for avg (last 5)12.6011.40
skill v1-0.340.06
solidity v10.43-0.30
sot against avg (last 5)3.604.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.504.30
sot for avg (last 3)4.005.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.604.60
squad age—25.45
state index0.020.27
sterile dominance v1-0.020.19
threat rate (last 10)0.230.26
threat rate (last 3)0.240.27
threat rate (last 5)0.250.22
travel km—223.30
venue ppg (last 5)2.402.40
xg against avg (last 5)1.191.62
xg for avg (last 5)0.901.56