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Sheffield United 1–3 Leeds

← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Mon, Feb 24, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Webb

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Leeds win51%1.86
Draw26%3.75
Sheffield United win22%4.38

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Leeds +0.552%1.87
Sheffield United +0.548%2.04

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.77
Over45%2.13

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

14'⚽ (og)Illan Meslier · Sheffield United
65'🟨Ao Tanaka · Leeds
68'🟨Gustavo Hamer · Sheffield United
72'⚽Junior Firpo · Leeds
89'⚽Ao Tanaka · Leeds
90'⚽Joël Piroe · Leeds

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
10Shots18
4On target8
3Corners5
9Fouls7
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSheffield UnitedLeeds
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
box share (last 5)0.710.68
cards avg (last 5)2.001.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBramall Lane
coach days451.00604.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.10
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.13
corner diff avg (last 5)2.806.40
corners against avg (last 5)3.402.40
corners for avg (last 5)6.208.80
corners volatility (last 10)4.022.37
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.03
dominance (last 5)0.510.77
elo1544.771640.44
elo momentum (last 5)2.7240.18
eye test v10.041.58
eye trend v10.140.04
first sub minute (last 10)57.6067.70
form points (last 5)12.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.402.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.403.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.851.96
h2 goals (last 10)0.901.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.55
keeper form v10.740.76
league points72.0072.00
league rank1.002.00
matches since blank4.004.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.6086.40
possession avg (last 5)55.0054.60
rest days9.217.00
scorer concentration0.170.22
season ppg2.182.18
shot diff avg (last 5)1.0014.20
shots for avg (last 5)12.6019.60
skill v10.351.69
solidity v10.041.82
sot against avg (last 5)4.202.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.106.30
sot for avg (last 3)5.336.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.206.40
squad age25.7925.82
state index0.241.44
sterile dominance v10.43-0.34
threat rate (last 10)0.270.31
threat rate (last 3)0.250.40
threat rate (last 5)0.230.37
travel km—45.90
venue ppg (last 5)2.002.20
xg against avg (last 5)1.450.37
xg for avg (last 5)1.562.77