← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sun, Feb 23, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Kitchen
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford win | 40% | 2.40 |
| Luton win | 30% | 3.22 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.30 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luton −0.25 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Watford −0.25 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 1.71 |
| Over | 43% | 2.23 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Jeremy Ngakia · Watford |
| 11' | ⚽ (pen) | Tom Dele-Bashiru · Watford |
| 23' | ⚽ | Edo Kayembe · Watford |
| 42' | 🟨 | Mads Juel Andersen · Luton |
| 58' | 🟨 | Matthew Pollock · Watford |
| 73' | 🟨 | Carlton Morris · Luton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Luton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days | 359.00 | 53.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.77 | 3.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1416.62 | 1370.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.18 | -19.64 |
| eye test v1 | -0.44 | -0.88 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.70 | 60.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.67 |
| league points | 45.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 24.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.20 | 69.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 7.88 | 3.68 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 0.85 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.13 | -0.67 |
| solidity v1 | -1.07 | 0.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 27.27 | 26.87 |
| state index | -0.77 | -1.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.50 | -0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| travel km | — | 26.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.01 | 1.22 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.16 |