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Sunderland 0–1 Hull

← EFL Championship 2024-25 Β· Sat, Feb 22, 12:30 PM UTC Β· ref: F. Hallam

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sunderland win60%1.60
Draw24%4.05
Hull win16%6.14

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hull βˆ’153%1.85
Sunderland βˆ’147%2.09

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under52%1.88
Over48%2.03

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

18'⚽ (og)Anthony Patterson · Hull
45'🟨Eliot Matazo · Hull
74'🟨Ivor Pandur · Hull
90'🟨John Egan · Hull

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
17Shots8
2On target4
5Corners3
6Fouls15
0Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricSunderlandHull
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.460.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.580.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.580.38
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.20
box share (last 5)0.760.54
cards avg (last 5)3.001.60
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStadium of Light
coach days236.0083.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.00
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.180.12
corner diff avg (last 5)1.60-1.80
corners against avg (last 5)3.406.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.004.20
corners volatility (last 10)3.101.95
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.12
dominance (last 5)0.540.48
elo1538.031392.32
elo momentum (last 5)0.86-0.74
eye test v10.80-0.03
eye trend v1-0.210.36
first sub minute (last 10)69.2053.60
form points (last 5)8.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.971.10
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.25
keeper form v10.700.68
league points62.0030.00
league rank4.0021.00
matches since blank6.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.003.00
matches since win1.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.0080.60
possession avg (last 5)53.2044.20
rest days4.696.90
scorer concentration0.290.19
season ppg1.880.94
shot diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.60
shots for avg (last 5)11.4012.60
skill v10.50-0.39
solidity v10.390.18
sot against avg (last 5)3.203.80
sot for avg (last 10)5.703.80
sot for avg (last 3)5.335.00
sot for avg (last 5)6.004.60
squad age23.9626.78
state index0.15-0.43
sterile dominance v10.60-0.41
threat rate (last 10)0.280.25
threat rate (last 3)0.220.32
threat rate (last 5)0.220.28
travel kmβ€”145.70
venue ppg (last 5)2.201.80
xg against avg (last 5)1.221.31
xg for avg (last 5)1.470.87