← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Feb 22, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: E. Bell
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Derby win | 37% | 2.65 |
| Draw | 33% | 2.94 |
| Millwall win | 30% | 3.30 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall −0.25 | 56% | 1.73 |
| Derby −0.25 | 44% | 2.21 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 70% | 1.38 |
| Over | 30% | 3.20 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 44' | 🟨 | Kenzo Goudmijn · Derby |
| 54' | 🟨 | Ryan Nyambe · Derby |
| 90' | ⚽ | Josh Coburn · Millwall |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 11 |
| 0 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Derby | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Pride Park Stadium |
| coach days | 21.00 | 83.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.34 | 1.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1527.07 | 1590.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.13 | 0.70 |
| eye test v1 | -0.82 | -0.56 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | 0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.40 | 60.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | — |
| league points | 29.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.80 | 69.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 7.69 | 3.70 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 1.27 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.54 | -1.06 |
| solidity v1 | 0.21 | -0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 25.52 | 25.29 |
| state index | -0.97 | -0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.35 | -0.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.10 | 1.28 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.92 | 0.78 |